#22 - Growing crops in the Arctic

💡 One idea: Growing crops in the Arctic

📈 One data figure: 2.6 million tonnes of CO₂e/year from gas stoves

✨ One success: Heimdal, carbon removals through the ocean

💡 Growing crops in the Arctic

As global warming hits the most vulnerable regions of the globe harder every year, northern latitudes may actually welcome some consequences of climate change. This is particularly true in the agricultural sector, where decreasing yields in the South contrast with expected increasing potential across Boreal and Arctic territories. The northern part of the Earth is already seen by many as a new agricultural frontier. Will the Great North feed us all?

As of today, agriculture in the Arctic and Subarctic regions is still marginal and does not satisfy the needs of local communities. Scientists agree that food production yields around the globe are primarily determined by temperature. The key metric here is "growing degree days (GDD)", a heat unit used to estimate the growth and development of crops during the growing season. As the growing season gets warmer and longer, scientists predict the leading edge of crop-feasible GDD conditions to shift northwards up to 1,200 km (745 miles) by 2100. By the end of the century, roughly three-quarters of the Boreal region might be suitable for food production, compared to 32% now.

Whereas farm yields in the US, Europe and India are all forecast to decrease, Canada, Scandinavia and Iceland can consider the opposite outcome. But no country is better positioned to capitalise on climate change than Russia. In its national action plan on climate released in January 2020, the Russian Government listed Arctic shipping and the expansion of crop cultivation as benefits resulting from increasing temperatures. Investors and agri-entrepreneurs, notably Chinese, are already betting on warmer conditions by developing soybean, corn and wheat large-scale farms across Eastern Russia. I personally found this New York Times Magazine article absolutely mind-blowing: How Russia Wins the Climate Crisis. The US too are pushing for Boreal agriculture, such as with this auction for more than 40,000 hectares (100,000 acres) of agricultural land in Alaska.

These developments will lead to huge land-use changes, and we should fear a Brazilian scenario in the Arctic. Across Eastern Russia already, large areas of wild forests, swamps and grasslands are being transformed into crop fields. Most of the carbon in northern soils is stored in boreal peatlands. Deforesting, draining and converting this landscape to commercial agriculture will result in the loss of 76% of the carbon stored in vegetation and undisturbed soils, not to mention additional impacts on water quality, biodiversity and non-compatible local cultural habits such as nomadic pastoralism. But for some governments, productivity and volume are the metrics of success. Who will develop the first Russian REDD+ project?

Finland and Sweden intend to take another route and prioritise resilient and organic agriculture. The North could become an unexpected model of agroecology systems that improve food production while protecting Indigenous rights and northern landscapes.

📈 2.6 million tonnes of CO₂e/year from gas stoves (US)

I am sure you have read many articles and angry Mastodon posts about how bad gas stoves are for our children and the planet. Indeed, recent studies have shown that gas stoves emit nitric oxide, nitrogen dioxide, carbon monoxide, particulate matter, formaldehyde, and the list goes on. In short, having a gas stove at home is comparable to secondhand smoking and can cause childhood asthma and other respiratory and cardiovascular diseases.

But gas stoves also emit methane, a greenhouse gas that is 25 times more potent than carbon dioxide. Even when turned off, they constantly leak small amounts of methane, so much so that roughly 1% of the natural gas you consume is emitted as unburnt methane. Overall, in the US, gas stoves are responsible for the emissions of 2.6 million tonnes of CO₂e per year. As a side note, CO₂ equivalent (CO₂e) is a unit used to standardise the climate effects of various greenhouse gases.

If your household is equipped with a gas stove, it is likely responsible for between 0.02 and 0.03 tCO₂e emitted into the atmosphere every year. From a global warming perspective, clearly not a big deal. For health reasons - and if you can afford it - by all means get rid of your old gas stove and install a new gleaming induction one in your kitchen. However, this will not help much in tackling climate change. Let's not get distracted!

✨ Heimdal, carbon removals through the ocean

Current direct-air-capture technologies require large patches of land and expensive infrastructure. Because of the low density of the atmosphere, it is rather energy-intensive to extract CO₂ from it. Nevertheless, it happens naturally every day at the surface of the ocean. Every year, 40 billion tonnes of CO₂ are released into the atmosphere, one-third of which is absorbed by the ocean.

This is the physical phenomenon the British start-up Heimdal is trying to leverage to build a scalable solution to fight climate change. Here is a little bit of science, as a gentle reminder:

CO₂ (from the air) + H₂O <-> H₂CO₃ <-> H₂CO₃^- + 2H⁺

Using renewable energy to extract the acidic parts (aka H⁺) from the ocean, the technology disrupts the acid-base balance which is naturally restored through the sequestration of more CO₂ coming from the atmosphere.

The process also extracts carbon-free carbonates sold to cement manufacturers happy to lower their climate footprint. The YC start-up raised a $6.4 million seed round in 2021 and should start commercial production this year (2023).

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— Colin Rebel
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